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Old 11-08-2012, 02:21 AM   #1
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Default China submarines to soon carry nukes, draft U.S. report says

WASHINGTON - China appears to be within two years of deploying submarine-launched nuclear weapons, adding a new leg to its nuclear arsenal that should lead to arms-reduction talks, a draft report by a congressionally mandated U.S. commission says. China in the meantime remains "the most threatening" power in cyberspace and presents the largest challenge to U.S. supply chain integrity, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission said in a draft of its 2012 report to the U.S. Congress. ...

China submarines to soon carry nukes, draft U.S. report says
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Old 09-21-2015, 10:42 PM   #2
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... decrease emphasis on large aircraft carriers and spend more on submarines...

Study: US Needs More Subs to Combat Chinese Military Growth
Sep 21, 2015 | Faced with China's growing anti-surface ship capacity, the United States should decrease its emphasis on large aircraft carriers in the Pacific and spend more on submarines, space capabilities and ways to make air bases and aircraft less vulnerable, according to a report released earlier this month by Rand Corp.
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In the 430-page report, the Santa Monica, Calif.-based think tank analyzed the relative military capabilities of the U.S. and China in certain scenarios based on open-source documents. The analysis makes comparisons using 10 "scorecards" covering air, maritime, space, cyber and nuclear domains. Capabilities were examined at seven-year intervals, beginning in 1996 and projecting to 2017, considering two "plausible" scenarios of conflict between the two countries: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and its forcible occupation of the Spratly Islands. China claims sovereignty over both.

This past year, China expanded a number of the tiny Spratly atolls through dredging and has built several runways -- even as the U.S. has denounced those moves as militarizing the archipelago. "Over the next five to 15 years, if U.S. and (People's Liberation Army) forces remain on roughly current trajectories, Asia will witness a progressively receding frontier of U.S. dominance," the report said.



Although China is not close to catching up to the U.S. in terms of overall military power, that's not necessary for it to control the region at its doorstep, the report said. "No one wants war; nobody expects war," said Eric Heginbotham, lead author and political scientist at Rand, when explaining the analysis' purpose. "But I think the balance of power affects calculations on both sides. Balance of power has a major impact on the probability of war."

Military dominance by the U.S., however, does not necessarily equate to deterrence in moments of instability when two nations could potentially consider the incentives for a first strike, he said. "If you have a highly offensive force or set of weapons that are very forward deployed -- sort of on the periphery of China -- but not resilient to attack, then in a crisis, both sides could have incentives to strike first," Heginbotham said. Attempting to restore U.S. dominance without thinking about the impact on crisis stability could inadvertently undermine the value of that supremacy, he said.

MORE Study: US Needs More Subs to Combat Chinese Military Growth | Military.com
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Old 10-24-2015, 12:01 PM   #3
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Obama tweakin' Xi's nose...

U.S. patrols to raise stakes with Beijing in disputed South China Sea
Sat Oct 24, 2015 - U.S. plans to send warships or military aircraft within 12 nautical miles of China's artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea, possibly within days, could open a tense new front in Sino-U.S. rivalry.
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A range of security experts said Washington's so-called freedom of navigation patrols would have to be regular to be effective, given Chinese ambitions to project power deep into maritime Southeast Asia and beyond. But China would likely resist attempts to make such U.S. actions routine, some said, raising the political and military stakes. China's navy could for example try to block or attempt to surround U.S. vessels, they said, risking an escalation. Given months of debate already in Washington over the first such patrol close to the Chinese outposts since 2012, several regional security experts and former naval officers said the U.S. government might be reluctant to do them often.


Chinese dredging vessels are purportedly seen in the waters around Mischief Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in this still image from video taken by a P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft

U.S. allies such as Japan and Australia are unlikely to follow with their own direct challenges to China, despite their concerns over freedom of navigation along vital trade routes, they added. "This cannot be a one-off," said Ian Storey, a South China Sea expert at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. "The U.S. navy will have to conduct these kinds of patrols on a regular basis to reinforce their message." The Obama administration has said it would test China's territorial claims to the area after months of pressure from Congress and the U.S. military. It has not given a timeframe. "I think we have been very clear - that we intend to do this," State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters last Monday.

Chinese Foreign Ministry officials said this month that Beijing would "never allow any country to violate China's territorial waters and airspace in the Spratly islands in the name of protecting navigation and overflight". Under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, 12-nautical mile limits cannot be set around man-made islands built on previously submerged reefs. Four of the seven reefs China has reclaimed over the last two years were completely submerged at high tide before construction began, legal scholars say. China claims most of the South China Sea. Other claimants are Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.

"NO-GO ZONE"
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Old 11-09-2015, 01:20 AM   #4
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Uncle Ferd says it's prob'ly a dry run so dey can learn how to sneak up on our ships...

Chinese submarine tracked U.S. aircraft carrier off Japan
Thu November 5, 2015 | Washington - An American aircraft carrier was closely tracked by a Chinese submarine off the coast of Japan last month, a U.S. defense official said, in the latest example of the test of wills between the two countries in the waters of the Pacific.
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A submerged Chinese Kilo-class fast-attack submarine shadowed the USS Ronald Reagan for at least half a day on October 24, the official said. He did not say how close the two vessels came to each other, but he noted, "It was more than a brief encounter." There was no indication of threatening behavior, and no communications exchanged between the two craft, he said, but American anti-submarine aircraft monitored the Chinese vessel. Chinese officials have not yet commented on the matter.

Separately, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter was on board the USS Theodore Roosevelt Thursday as the carrier traveled through the South China Sea, according to the Pentagon. The U.S. defense official played down the threatening nature of the submarine incident, saying that any time the U.S. conducts joint exercises with Japan, the Chinese sometimes "come out and take a look at what's going on." But it is always a concern when ships operate in close proximity, according to one former carrier strike group commander who has experienced several encounters like this. "Some person cuts off the other one. Ships can collide. We've had cases where people didn't understand intent, where gun-mounts were trained," said retired Adm. Pete Daly, who now heads the U.S. Naval Institute. "There's the potential for misunderstanding or the potential for a strategic miscalculation."

At the height of the Cold War, American and Soviet ships and submarines would stalk each other across the world's oceans in a high-stakes game of cat and mouse, testing each other's capabilities. In 1984, a Soviet submarine and an American aircraft carrier, the Kitty Hawk, collided in the Sea of Japan, causing some damage to the Soviet vessel. But there is also a potential benefit when competing navies have close encounters. "The truth is, we track them tracking us, and we learn about their capabilities," said Robert Daly, who directs the Kissinger Institute on China at the Woodrow Wilson Center. "Chinese submarines are growing in number, but they're still relatively noisy," he pointed out. "They're at least a generation behind us. And when they track us, we find out what they are capable of."

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